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(Yes, another great qusioetn! I don’t have a good explanation why there is a difference.My simulation works like yours – I shuffle the deck, and then I put out 12 cards from it. I then check each combination of 3 cards for a set, just like you...)
(Check that off the list of tihgns I was confused about.)
 
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Check that off the list of tihgns I was confused about.
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{{#set:Summary=A card throwing striker that is like Gambit.
 
|Length=20
 
|Minimum Level=1
 
|Base Attack Bonus Progression=Moderate
 
|Fortitude Save Progression=Poor
 
|Reflex Save Progression=Good
 
|Will Save Progression=Poor
 
|Class Ability=Other
 
|Class Ability Progression=Other
 
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Yes, another great qusioetn! I don’t have a good explanation why there is a difference.My simulation works like yours – I shuffle the deck, and then I put out 12 cards from it. I then check each combination of 3 cards for a set, just like you do. In the first round (with 69 cards in the deck) I agree that any choice of set is as random as it gets. This shows in the results for the 3 different strategies the values for when there are 69 cards on the table are virtually identical.The difference only shows up in subsequent rounds. This is where things cease to be totally random, since we remove sets in a certain way (and because we remove sets, not just three random cards). Suppose we lay out all the cards on the table in one single row from left to right (as opposed to the more common 3 by 4 matrix). In the “first found set” case, in my search algorithm, it is equivalent to always preferring to pick sets “as far to the left” as possible, i.e. picking the set whose left-most card is as far to the left as possible. In the “random among available sets” the difference is that I find all the possible sets in the row, and then randomly pick one of those. Somehow, by systematically picking sets “as far to the left” as possible, the probabilities are altered a little bit. Even though I can’t explain why that happens, I do think that “first found set” is not as good of a model of real game play as the “random among available sets” is.Another qusioetn in the same vein is: why is there such a steep change in probability for the first 4 rounds, and then it levels out? Why doesn’t it change linearly instead? I can’t explain that either, but I would love to hear theories or explanations for both of these qusioetns.
 

Latest revision as of 04:17, September 8, 2012

Check that off the list of tihgns I was confused about.

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